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Clarkson's council victory part of trend

Section: Politics

Michelle Krupa

With her victory Saturday in the special election to fill an at-large seat on the New Orleans City Council, Jacquelyn Brechtel Clarkson reversed two long-standing council realities.

Clarkson, who is white, annulled the so-called unspoken rule that has kept the two citywide seats divided between white and African-American politicians since 1978. In defeating district council member Cynthia Willard-Lewis, who is black, Clarkson also gave the council its first white majority in 22 years.
STAFF PHOTO BY ELIOT KAMENITZA joyous Jackie Clarkson enters the grand ballroom at the Royal Sonesta Saturday night, escorted by her husband Arthur "Buzz" Clarkson, for an election night victory party.
STAFF PHOTO BY ELIOT KAMENITZHolding her grand daughter Kielci Lewis, Cynthia Willard-Lewis admits defeat in her run for councilman at large seat Saturday.

The shift appears to be part of an emerging trend in city politics.

Laurie White, who is white, won a citywide race Saturday for Orleans Parish Criminal District Court judge, replacing Charles Elloie, who is black. In sections of Uptown and Central City, a pair of white candidates, Walter Leger III and Neil Abramson, won state House seats that were vacated by black politicians who sought higher office.

Those races came more than a year after Stacy Head, who is white, grabbed the council's District B seat, which at the time had been held by black politicians for nearly three decades.

Though the examples hardly represent a wholesale takeover by white candidates, political observers said Sunday that the changes suggest black politicians may be losing their monopoly on certain elected posts in New Orleans, particularly citywide seats.

"Symbolically what it shows is that we have a realignment politically, and that advances made by African-American elected officials and the African-American political structure over the last 30 years ... right now are in neutral or being lost," Xavier University pollster and sociologist Silas Lee said.

Like most changes to hit the city in the past 27 months, the effect appears to be a direct result of Hurricane Katrina.

Despite the fact that at least on the voting rolls African-Americans still outnumber whites by a ratio of more than 2-to-1, both white and black voters in New Orleans have gone to the polls in nearly equal numbers since the storm.

Orleans Parish Registrar of Voters Sandra Wilson has estimated that more than 100,000 people on the rolls have left New Orleans and eventually may be removed from the list, and recent voting patterns suggest the bulk of those voters are black.

Never has the new dynamic been more in play than in Saturday's at-large race.

An analysis of Secretary of State's records shows that voters in majority black precincts actually cast slightly fewer ballots Saturday than in precincts with a majority of non-black voters. The difference of 317 votes -- less than 1 percent of the nearly 50,000 votes cast -- is remarkable considering that registered black voters in New Orleans outnumber registered whites by more than 92,000.

"Katrina rearranged the political deck in New Orleans," Lee said.

As Clarkson demonstrated, the altered demographic means candidates going head-to-head in a citywide election must attract at least some support from other races to win.

Overall, Clarkson won 53 percent of the vote to Willard-Lewis' 47 percent.

A precinct analysis by The Times-Picayune shows that Clarkson earned her edge by attracting more "crossover" support in precincts where 75 percent or more voters are black, compared with the support that Willard-Lewis garnered in precincts with roughly the same proportion of white voters.

Though her support was less racially polarized than that of Willard-Lewis, Clarkson still drew the bulk of her support from heavily white precincts. She secured only 16.5 percent in heavily black precincts, a total Lee described as meager, though Willard-Lewis fared worse in heavily white precincts with 10.9 percent.

A similar pattern emerged in the race for Criminal District Court judge, according to University of New Orleans political scientist Ed Chervenak, who conducted an analysis of that contest.

White won that race handily, pulling in 56 percent of the vote to Lombard's 44 percent.

Chervenak's analysis shows that White garnered 86 percent of the vote in the heavily white precincts while earning 27 percent of the vote in heavily black ones. Meanwhile, her opponent, Juana Marie Lombard, who is black, received just 73 percent of the vote from heavily black precincts while attracting 14 percent of the vote in heavily white precincts.

Political pundits said these results should serve as a lesson to candidates considering a run for public office.

"Now, politicians are going to have to construct a coalition" to get elected, Chervenak said. "There's no more relying on a particular community to be elected."

Chervenak noted that the influx of Hispanic residents will likely impact the balance, but to what degree remains unclear.

"In the future, you're going to have to satisfy the entire city of New Orleans," said Lambert Boissiere, a former City Council member and state senator. "You can't just... satisfy one sector."

Comparing the current atmosphere to the 1960s, when black politicians were making inroads into local mainstream politics, Boissiere said he expects the city's newly altered racial demographic to entice more white candidates.

Chervenak agreed, saying next year's race for Orleans Parish District Attorney and the 2010 mayor's race likely will draw several white hopefuls. Attorney Ralph Capitelli, who is white, already has begun raising money in his bid for D.A. Meanwhile, City Council President Arnie Fielkow and former gubernatorial candidate John Georges, who are both white, are being talked about as possible mayoral contenders.

Chervenak said studies have shown that as the racial composition of a city's electorate approaches a 50-50 split, the political atmosphere tends to grow more contentious as the former majority group suddenly must share the stage.

"Since one group has been dominant for so long, they've just had their way politically, and now they're being challenged," he said. "No one likes to give up power."

Whether that angst will take hold in New Orleans will depend largely on whether newly elected leaders, particularly Clarkson, consider the needs of all residents when governing and forming alliances with other politicians.

"You may see candidates represent both sides better than they have in the past," Boissiere said. "Hopefully it will end some of the racial connotations on elections and you'll see people black and white start represent both sides of the equation."

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